Imagine waking up one morning to find the world buzzing about a giant asteroid speeding toward Earth. That’s the scenario researchers are studying with an asteroid named 2024 YR4. This chunk of space rock, possibly up to 90 m in diameter, might zip close to our planet in December 2032 – just seven years from now.
Currently, NASA and the European Space Agency estimate 2024 YR4’s chance of hitting Earth to be 2.3 percent (a one-in-43 chance), but that number changes each time new telescope data arrives. Because 2024 YR4 is newly discovered, astronomers have less time to track it, which leads to more uncertainty in their measurements. With more observations, experts can refine the asteroid’s orbit, likely causing the risk of a direct impact to drop to zero.
Even if there were a serious hazard, modern technology offers hope. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission in 2022 has shown that we can alter an asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it. In addition, space agencies and observatories worldwide share data to spot and track any threatening objects with precision.
Why is 2024 YR4 capturing so much attention? Asteroids pass by Earth regularly, but new discoveries keep us alert. Furthermore, NASA has stated that “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 percent.” Still, scientists emphasize that such predictions can fluctuate until they collect enough data.
Over the next few months, telescopes around the globe will monitor 2024 YR4’s path, narrowing down any uncertainty. Until then, there is no need for worry as, according to scientists, several asteroids have dropped off the impact risk list in the past as more data came in.